题 目：Heat shocks constrain agricultural expansion but land conversion reduces global biodiversity intactness
报告人：刘鹏飞 教授（美国罗德岛大学）
主 持 人：黄开兴 研究员
时 间：2026年6月25日 星期四 15:30-17:00
报告地点：北京大学王克桢楼454会议室
报告人简介：
刘鹏飞，美国罗德岛大学环境与生命中文成人直播
资源与环境经济系终身教授，并兼任海洋研究和大数据研究中心的资深研究员，担任American Journal of Agricultural Economics 副主编。曾在美国康涅狄格大学和美国阿肯色大学担任助理教授。主要研究领域为农业，能源和环境经济学。作为项目负责人，获得来自美国国家自然科学基金，美国海洋和大气管理局，美国环境保护局，美国农业部，斯隆基金(The Sloan Foundation)等多个机构经费资助。在学术领域发表包括 PNAS、Nature Energy、Nature Sustainability、Nature Climate Change、Nature Communications、Journal of Development Economics、Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists、Journal of Environmental Economics and Management、Journal of Economic Behavior &Organization、American Journal of Agricultural Economics 等。担任美国国家环保局和农业部评审专家。研究成果多次被国际媒体报道，包括CNN、BBC、NPR、Bloomberg、The Washington Post等。
报告内容：
Heat shocks can reshape agricultural land use, but their implications for expansion and biodiversity remain unclear. Here, using a global grid-year panel of heat exposure, land-use transitions and the Biodiversity Intactness Index, we quantify how extreme heat affects agricultural expansion and how land conversion affects biodiversity. We find that heat shocks generally constrain agricultural expansion rather than induce immediate cropland or pasture expansion. This pattern is robust across heat-shock measures and spatial resolutions, and persists in the current and following year. Yet constrained expansion does not imply biodiversity recovery. Agricultural land conversion substantially reduces biodiversity intactness, with the largest losses from cropland expansion and significant losses from pasture expansion. Responses vary across development levels, agricultural baselines and long-run temperature zones, suggesting that land-use adjustment under heat stress reflects both socioeconomic capacity and biophysical constraints. These results show that heat shocks limit expansion-based agricultural adjustment, while remaining land conversion continues to pose biodiversity risks, underscoring the need to integrate ecological safeguards into climate adaptation and land-use policy.