题 目：How the war in Iran raises global healthy diet costs and impacts food availability through input-output network
报告人：林发勤 教授（中国农业大学）
主 持 人：刘承芳 教授
时 间：2026年6月2日 星期二 15:30-17:00
报告地点：北京大学王克桢楼107会议室
报告人简介：
Geopolitical conflict can disrupt energy and fertilizer supply chains, raising the cost of food production worldwide. Using a general-equilibrium production-network model covering 245 economies and 133 sectors, we quantify how the 2026 Iran conflict transmits fuel and fertilizer price shocks, via a Strait of Hormuz blockade, into the Cost of a Healthy Diet (CoHD). In the most severe scenario, which combines a near-total Hormuz trade disruption with a large contraction in Gulf energy production, the cross-country median CoHD rises by 0.67% and the mean by 0.78%, with 88% of non-source economies recording increases. Among the six dietary groups, legumes and staples show the largest median price increases. Countries whose food sectors allocate a larger share of input costs to energy and fertilizers experience systematically larger CoHD increase. Coordinated supply-side measures reduce the burden by roughly one-third but do not eliminate it.
报告内容：
林发勤，经济学双博士，教育部长江学者特聘教授（2024）、青年长江（2020），中国农业大学经济管理中文成人直播 应用经济学领军教授、博士生导师、经济贸易系系主任、农产品国际贸易研究中心主任，担任留美经济学会会刊China Economic Review，China Agricultural Economic Review等多个SSCI期刊的副主编、特刊主编和编委职务, 中国农业大学学报（人文社科版）》编委，人大复印资料中心“两委会”编委，曾担任中央财经大学国际经济与贸易中文成人直播 院长助理，在JIE，JDE，EER，JEBO，JCE，《经济研究》《管理世界》等刊物发表论文百余篇，社科重大项目首席专家，自科国际合作重点项目首席专家，自科面上项目结项后评估获“特优”鉴定，作为主要成员参编教育部主持的首批中国经济学教材《中国开放型经济学》，出版畅销书《你应该知道的国际贸易》，研究报告曾多次获得国家领导人批示。