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报告题目：Climate Change, Latin American Commodity Production and Food Security in China: The Road Ahead

报  告 人：David Cleary

               大自然保护协会（TNC）全球农业总监

报告时间：2025年6月12日 星期四 15:00-16:30

报告地点：北京大学王克桢楼508会议室

报告人简介：

David Cleary is Director of Global Agriculture at The Nature Conservancy, based in London. He oversees the Conservancy’s work on low carbon commodity production, particularly in relation to habitat loss, as well as helping to manage global partnerships around agriculture, land use and climate change in the public and private sectors. He lived for 17 years in Brazil, and has extensive experience in the rest of Latin America, the United States and Asia, especially China and Indonesia. Prior to TNC he was an academic at the universities of Edinburgh, Cambridge and Harvard. He has a Ph.D in anthropology from Oxford University.

报告内容：

The remarkable success China has enjoyed over the past generation in increasing per capita income has led to a dietary shift towards more “western” high protein consumption patterns. This has shifted a South-South trade flow in agricultural commodities between China and Latin America to the centre of the world food system. It involves particularly soy and beef, especially from Brazil but also from Argentina. This seminar will review the history of this trading relationship, and examine how it is likely to develop over the next 10-15 years. It will examine the following questions:

-What is the history of land use change associated with soy and beef production in Brazil, Argentina and elsewhere?

-What are the projections of future Chinese demand for soy and beef, and what are the land use implications of that demand?

-What impact is climate change in origination countries likely to have on agricultural yields, and what are the implications for Chinese food security in the medium and long term?

-What are the best options for both China and origination countries to mitigate economic and environmental risks over the next decade?